PREVIOUS PROJECT

Measuring and mapping climate change effects on species distribution allow the identification of localities that may be prone to suffer bigger impacts and determining new localities that might be environmentally adequate to be colonized in the future. The problem is that it is not as simple as it sounds because many species would not necessarily be able to establish in new areas. Most mammals are dispersal-limited and may not be able to shift their ranges fast enough to track suitable climates and could be very sensitive to future climate change. In Ecuador, many species may experience severe reductions in their potential distribution ranges.

 

As its name implies, Ecuador is located at the equator, right in the middle of the world. Three important world hotspots of biodiversity confluence this country and make its diversity stunning and unique. However, the fact that it is located in a mountainous region, that it harbors high biodiversity in a small area, and that it has a high deforestation rate puts its diversity at risk.

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Climate change may aggravate the consequences because species will face environmental changes that will affect them. We predict shifts in species richness and in species composition (turnover rate) in the future. The results of my study showed that the number of species will decrease across the whole country with a high turnover rate, producing changes that may highly affect the interaction of species. Moreover, the functionality of protected areas assumes that species distributions remain static; however, climate change can drive species out of these protected areas.

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This study could be used as a guide for the creation of new protected areas by understanding how species may move in the future looking for suitable areas. We emphasize the need for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to mitigate the effects of climate change.

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Download the full manuscript at the research gate or here.